Bitcoin Tech Talk #452
Interesting Stuff
Science Woes - I’ve shared a lot of articles about how scientific progress has largely slowed down and how innovation has shrunk significantly. This article tries to explain why this is happening and lays the blame on a lot of different things, like the focus on efficiency or iterative improvements, the current replication crisis which points to a lot of skewed incentives, bureaucratization brought on by rent-seeking, and DEI/feminization which has prioritized political ends rather than scientific truth. The skewed incentives are almost all motivated by fiat money printing and the centralization of science, which unfortunately has meant that progress has largely slowed down and even reversed.
Shared Values - I rarely, if ever, share government articles in the Interesting Stuff part of the newsletter. In fact, this is the first one I can recall, so it’s as much a surprise to me as it might be to you. It’s intriguingly published on Substack of all places by Marco Rubio’s State Department about the need for shared values with Europe. The article is a repudiation of the globalist agenda and a call to re-embrace values like free speech, secure borders and fair elections. I was impressed by how cogent the argument was, though it’s obviously political and reflects the current administration. But more importantly, the tone and the fact that it’s published on a platform like substack are a surprising bow to populism, which the current administration’s embrace of Bitcoin also is.
Societal Purpose - This is one of those articles that frustrate me because it gets the diagnosis largely right, but the cure completely wrong. The article looks at global fertility rates and how quickly the demographic time bomb is coming and correctly identifies that people essentially lack hope. Indeed, the insight that large portions of society have become rent-seeking consumption machines whereas a couple of generations ago, they were production machines is useful and points to a deeper spiritual problem. But the solution is the typical technocratic Keynesian dream of having something, anything, that unites humanity toward a singular purpose like space exploration. The problems of fiat money are obvious to everyone, even if the solutions are blinded by bad economics.
Living Cheaply - The Gen Z and Millenial complaint is that housing is unaffordable and that hope is largely lacking due to the selfishness of previous generations. Indeed, there’s a lot of merit in this view, as a lot of the wealth of previous generations has been spent frivolously. Yet, as this article shows, it’s actually not hard to own property and live cheaply in the US ($432/month on half an acre, cue the selling chairs meme for Bitcoiners). The problem isn’t about the cost of living in the US, it’s really the cost of living in dense, desirable places with modern, upper-middle class comforts like a 2000 sq ft home, a quick drive to the city and even an automobile. In other words, our desires have grown, even as the money has debased.
The Story of a NYC Station - However inefficient you think bureaucracy is, it’s more inefficient than that. This is the moral that I got out of this story. The story is that of the 1.8 mile Second Avenue station whose planning started almost 100 years ago and has been in regulatory hell almost the entire time. The staggering cost is $4.45 billion dollars, finally opening in 2017 after way too much planning and way too slow construction. The general trend in public works over time is to become slower and more expensive as more rent-seekers collect their rents, and the fact that the NYC subway is one of the oldest in the world means that there’s a lot of cruft which makes building and extending it extremely difficult. In many ways, it’s a microcosm of the world-wide fiat dysfunction.
What I'm up to
Brandon Gentile - I spoke with Brandon about Bitcoin pricing models, the OP_RETURN conflict, having empathy with your future self and, of course, the title, which is why having 0.1 BTC might be enough eventually. It was a fun and long conversation that touched on everything, including Trump’s tariffs, altcoin fatigue, why investing doesn’t make sense once you’re on a Bitcoin standard, the history of colored coins and much more. It was a two hour+ conversation, but it felt shorter, mostly because there was so much to talk about.
Lisbon - I’ll be headed to the city this coming week. If you’re part of a Bitcoin meetup there, please reply to this email and let me know!
Prague - I’ll be in Prague after to speak at BTC Prague. I’ll be giving a talk on Bitcoin price (it’s meant to be a little click-baity) and participating in a debate on the long-term security budget. Hope to see you there!
Nostr Note of the Week
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